Reassessing The Red Sox's Rafael Devers Trade

The Red Sox shocked the world on June 15, but Boston might get the last laugh.

After the Red Sox swept the New York Yankees in June, they shockingly traded Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants for a package that didn't look remarkable. Multiple reports cited the dysfunction behind the scenes that stemmed from Boston's Alex Bregman signing and got worse when chief baseball officer Craig Breslow asked Devers to play first base after Triston Casas suffered a season-ending injury. Devers refused, and the Red Sox traded their superstar slugger.

Boston was 37-36 at the time of the trade and had a 31% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. San Francisco was 41-31, two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and had a 64.4% chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. The Red Sox were a laughingstock with memories of the Mookie Betts trade haunting fans, and the Giants' present and future were bright. Oh, how things can change quickly.

I thought it was fitting to reassess this blockbuster trade after the Red Sox won the series against the Yankees in the Bronx. Alex Cora's side sits at 71-60 following their four-game sweep of their American League East rivals, and the Giants continued to drown in shallow water at 63-68.

Following the Devers trade, Boston became one of the hottest teams in baseball and looks poised to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021. San Fran appears to have buyer's remorse and is wondering what life will be like through Devers' 10-year, $313.5 million deal. So, the Breslow and the Red Sox won the trade, right? Well, I do want to explore some doubts behind that sentiment.

In exchange for Devers, Boston received Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs III, and Jose Bello. Hicks was the only one to play in the majors for the Red Sox, and the results weren't pretty. He commanded a 6.60 ERA in 16 games, striking out 14 batters in 15 innings pitched. The 28-year-old certainly can throw the ball hard and force a good amount of ground balls, but he wasn't causing enough swings and misses to maintain a role in the bullpen.

Tibbs hasn't been remarkable in Double-A Portland with one home run and a .586 OPS, but it's a wait-and-see on the 22-year-old. The same can be said for Bello, who's made his way through Boston's system from the FCL to Single-A Salem.

Harrison has been the most intriguing piece of the trade. The 24-year-old was an afterthought in his Giants tenure, but he's been solid at Triple-A Worcester. The left-hander commands a 3.69 ERA in 46 1/3 innings along with 46 strikeouts. Red Sox brass have seen "flashes" from the southpaw, and if he turns into a legit starter, that's a testament to Andrew Bailey, his staff and Boston's developmental program. It also would cement the Red Sox as legit winners of the Devers trade because so far, Boston simply is winning through subtraction and how disastrous a trade it's been for the Giants.

San Francisco likely won't make the postseason and face a challenging offseason. Devers' numbers regressed when he arrived in the Bay Area, and he's only played 15 games at first base, which has been an interesting experience to watch. In fairness to him, these growing pains should have been felt in the spring, but neither he nor Cora seemed willing to experiment. It's unknown if Buster Posey and his staff want Devers to play the field, but if he isn't, he needs to produce with his bat because he offers nothing else.

That's another factor in the Devers trade. The All-Star is still relatively young, and we saw from the start of this season that he might just need to take time to get in his groove after dramatic events in his life. The Giants sure as hell are hoping that is the case, and that Devers can lead their offense while they try to figure out their rotation in the offseason.

I sort of buried the lede, but Boston benefitted with a healthier clubhouse environment, and the Devers trade allowed room for Roman Anthony to make his major league debut this season, and the 21-year-old has been amazing since he took over as the regular lead-off man for Cora's side. His advanced numbers are ridiculous (135 wRC+ combined with insane batting numbers).

Were people wrong to call the Red Sox losers? In a vacuum, no. It was an objectively bad trade, but the problem with sports is that not everything can be taken in a vacuum. It's why there's content about people redrafting a draft from years ago. The 2013 Boston Celtics-Brooklyn Nets trade will be remembered for years to come because of the impact it had on both teams in the following years.

The pervasiveness of morning shows like "First Take" and "Get Up" can mean fans and analysts get trapped in a bubble of short-term outcomes. I can be guilty of this, too, sometimes. But what these shows don't do is reevaluate after new information comes their way and reflect. I think that is what the Devers trade will do and why it could have a different impact than the Betts trade in 2020. Time will only tell.

Thanks for reading until the end! At the end of every post, I like to recommend either a K-pop song or a pro wrestling match. For this post, I'll go with Bandido and Konosuke Takeshita's excellent match at Supercard of Honor this year that Ring of Honor posted for free on YouTube.